Bewertung der Chancen und Risiken – eine Case Study
Hier finden Sie eine aktuelle Fallstudie in englischer Sprache zu einer geplanten Wasserstofftankstelle in tschechischer Grenznähe.
Investment in a German Hydrogen Fuelling Station –
An Assessment of Risks and Opportunities
Setting the scene
Located in Central Germany, the Frank Company (name changed) is a third generation family business. As an energy merchant, business activities span oil, gas and power distribution to individual and business customers. Currently, Frank is planning a €4m infrastructure investment in a hydrogen fuelling station. As a result of the strong business model, the Company has been able to secure complete project financing. Now, Frank is ready to start implementing the project.
Due to the size of the investment required, the owner of the Frank Company has doubts about the risks of the project. Therefore, Frank needed to better understand the main drivers, success factors, levers and material risks involved in this project.
How we helped
Frank commissioned our renowned international industry expert partners. They provided an independent assessment of the Company’s plans for a hydrogen fuelling station.
In a first step, our experts reviewed the hydrogen supply side from a supplier cost perspective describing the challenges in operating the supplier’s hydrogen plant. Furthermore, they outlined the various costs, problems and alternatives in transporting hydrogen and hydrogen transporting technologies.
From a commercial point of view, our experts summarised the impact of the supply cost side on Frank’s operations. In particular, they provided an overview of expected scenarios of hydrogen selling prices to the end consumer and assessed the supplier’s price positioning. Adding further market side data points, our experts then reviewed Frank’s business plan assumptions, including major revenue drivers. Most importantly, those were the number of trucks to be refuelled per day and the average hydrogen volume needed. An assessment of hydrogen truck adoption rates overall and in Frank’s particular region was also a major model input supplied by our experts. Finally, the commercial study entailed descriptions of major risk factors and their sensitivity to the main scenarios. By modelling the different scenarios, our experts highlighted the main risk reduction strategies.
From a technical point of view, our experts compared the hydrogen storage and refuelling technology to be employed by Frank with alternative turnkey solutions on the market. To that end, our expert outlined each viable technology and compared investment requirements and operating costs. As a result, the impact on project profitability for each alternative became clear. Last but not least, we connected Frank with alternative suppliers.
Impact and Potential
Our experts‘ findings and advice painted a transparent picture of the opportunities and risks involved in building and operating a hydrogen fuelling station. Frank now has a realistic view of the essential decisions to be taken in the planning/implementation process and understands their ramifications. In particular, this knowledge supports Frank in negotiating with suppliers as well as reducing overall project and execution risks. Finally, our client is in a pole position to select the best available technology for his purposes and location.
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BBR Associates GmbH
Danielle S. Budde, CFA
Adelheidstraße 10, D-65185 Wiesbaden
T: +49 611 3414692